2026 China Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Export Risk Index Report Officially Released
On June 25, SINOSURE held a themedevent called 2026 Inclusive Finance Services Season in Beijing, and released the 2026 China Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Export Risk Index (SMERI) Report.
SMERI, jointly developed by SINOSURE and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, is a comprehensive indicatorto measure the credit risk levels faced by China's small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises when trading with buyers in various industries across different countries/regions. SMERI integrates a wide range of data resources, including macro economic data of a country, industry data, research data of trade policy experts, exporters’ survey findings, as well as SINOSURE’s business data and dynamic risk monitoring data. The indicator system covers macro, meso, and micro levels, systematically assessing the credit risks faced by China's SMEs when trading with buyers across 9 key sectors from 60 major destination countries/regions .
According to the 2026 SMERI Report, the comprehensive index for country risk has declined by 0.4 compared with the previous year, with overall risk situation easing. However, structural pressures are prevailing, with four sub-indices diverging. The macroeconomic sub-index is up by 0.6, reflecting weakened global growth momentum, higher energy and freight costs driven by geopolitical conflicts, and escalated fiscal and financial vulnerabilities in some economies.The trade environment sub-index is up by 1.2, indicating frequent trade protectionism, tightened technical, green barriers and compliance requirements, as well as increased policy uncertainty. The payment sub-index is up by 3.1, primarily due to rising default rate in certain industries and emerging markets, increasein fraud cases, and notable payment delays. The company quality sub-index is down by 9.6, reflecting an overall improvement of overseas buyers’ credit worthiness. Regarding the industry chain, the risk profile exhibits a clear "region-industry" divergence. For instance, high value-added products such as EVs and electronics face substantial entry barriers in developed economies, while primary goods and traditional light industry products like textiles, apparel, and footwear face relatively higher collection risks in some emerging markets brought by weak buyer creditworthiness and exchange rate volatility.
SMERI, which is China's first specialized assessment tool for evaluating the export credit risk faced by foreign trade SMEs, has been published for four consecutive years. Since 2024, the index has been digitally and dynamically displayed with monthly updates in the "Risk Index" section of "Xinbu Tianxia" (going global with SINOSURE) APP to provide enterprises with convenient and intuitive risk information. In the future, SINOSURE and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation will further optimize the SMERI system, expand its application scenarios, and provide more precise risk management support for SMEs in their global expansion, to facilitate the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.